I don't see the similarity between your comment and the point I was making.
When a very successful long term investor buys a long term investment it can be a notable signal of the merit of the investment.
But if anyone sells an investment (absent of a credible explanation why) it doesn't say anything about the merit of the investment.
Further, if insiders (board, execs) buy shares in the company they are running that's a positive signal. It the majority of insiders sell shares that is a bearish signal. If one important insider (e.g. CEO, founder, etc) sells shares, that on its own doesn't really mean anything, because one person/entity could be selling shares for any of many different reasons.
One more nuance... When warren buffet sold off some airlines, and then later I think he sold Morgan Stanley or some other bank stock, and he explained in shareholder meeting (and probably some reports) why he sold these (unsustainable business practices) that is a valid bear signal.
So really it's when someone sells, and they don't explain why they sold, or their explanation has a conflict of interest, then the sale is not a meaningful signal.
I'm sure that's a good sign of where Microsoft is going, but I'm not an expert in the stock market so I wouldn't know.
Sometimes people need to sell assets for reasons other than an expectation that the assets will decline in value.
Of all the data points one could use to predict Microsoft's future success, bill gates selling shares is one I wouldn't give much weight to.
similar to warren buffet buying google and google going up 10% since :)
Huh?
I don't see the similarity between your comment and the point I was making.
When a very successful long term investor buys a long term investment it can be a notable signal of the merit of the investment.
But if anyone sells an investment (absent of a credible explanation why) it doesn't say anything about the merit of the investment.
Further, if insiders (board, execs) buy shares in the company they are running that's a positive signal. It the majority of insiders sell shares that is a bearish signal. If one important insider (e.g. CEO, founder, etc) sells shares, that on its own doesn't really mean anything, because one person/entity could be selling shares for any of many different reasons.
One more nuance... When warren buffet sold off some airlines, and then later I think he sold Morgan Stanley or some other bank stock, and he explained in shareholder meeting (and probably some reports) why he sold these (unsustainable business practices) that is a valid bear signal.
So really it's when someone sells, and they don't explain why they sold, or their explanation has a conflict of interest, then the sale is not a meaningful signal.